AI Winter !!! Past Today Tomorrow !!!

 

What is AI ?

According to John McCarthy ( One of the founder  of  area of AI) " It is the science and engineering of making intelligent machines, especially intelligent computer programs. It is related to the similar task of using computers to understand human intelligence, but AI does not have to confine itself to methods that are biologically observable."

Read full article : WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? John McCarthy -2004

you might not be understand above statement . So lets see some example ,

    Do you use Google Maps?  How to find easiest  routes and avoid traffic. It's AI . Google Map find possible  routes and consider traffic status in the road  then show best routes for you. 

Tesla Self Driving car is another superb example for AI

AI History

So now you have fair understand about AI. Lets find out history of AI.

1950: Alan Turing publishes Computing Machines and Intelligence. In the newspaper offers an answer to the question, "Can machines think?" And it introduces the Turing test to determine if a computer can have the same intelligence as a human. Since then, the value of the Turing test has been debated.

1956: John McCarthy introduce  the term "artificial intelligence" at the very first conference on artificial intelligence at Dartmouth College. Later that year, Allen Newell, J. Shaw, and Herbert Simon developed the Logic Theorist, the first working artificial intelligence program.

1967: Frank Rosenblatt creates the Mark 1 Perceptron, the first neural network-based computer that learns through trial and error. Just a year later, Marvin Minsky and Seymour Papert publish a book called Perceptrons, which becomes both a foundational work on neural networks and, at least temporarily, an argument against future neural network research.

1980s: Neural networks that use error backpropagation for learning gain widespread acceptance in artificial intelligence applications.

1997: IBM Deep Blue defeats then-world chess champion Garry Kasparov in a chess game .

2011: IBM Watson defeats champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter .

2015: The Baidu Minwa supercomputer uses a special type of deep neural network called a convolutional neural network to identify and categorize images with greater precision than the average person.

2016: DeepMind's AlphaGo program, powered by a deep neural network, defeats World Go Champion Lee Sodol in a five-game match.

What is AI Winter?

Since AI concept introduce ,many people have interested  about AI . Media has been publishing news with more sci-fiction approach . But sometime AI fails to give expected result or overestimate. Therefore people interest about AI  and funding had reduced. for that period called as "AI Winter". Two AI winters can be identify in  past decades .Lets discuss history of AI Winter.

In addition to above reasons, There wa

History of AI Winter

First AI Winter -1974-1980

Now you have understand  about  AI winter . Lets discuss what  were reasons behind the first AI winter.

Leading scientists were expected AI become more powerful very short period. Also expected great success in following areas,  language translation ,defeat human in chess game. But it wasn't happened. Also there was fear that AI  would soon replace all human tasks. it hasn't been happened until now.

 In addition to above reasons, following incident caused for first AI Winter.

            Two American  institutes ( Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) ,U.S. Defense Department (later renamed to DARPA)) had reduced AI researchers funds. That decision was taken by administration because they had failed to deliver on most of their promises.

Second AI Winter -1987-1994

        Expert system became more popular in 1980. Expert systems were implemented various fields. Such as financial planning , medical diagnosis, geological exploration. But this expert system maintenance  cost was very high .Also Jon Macrthy criticized expert system due to their lack of common sense and unable to understand their limitations.

        According aforesaid facts, led to  reduce in funding AI research. Also general interest had declined. Many AI companies  collapsed during this period. 

Winter is Coming?

One of famous word " History Repeats" , So its applicable for any thing. below quoted one of Facebook AI researcher opinion about AI winter ,

Read  ---> Read full article 

https://blog.re-work.co/ai-experts-discuss-the-possibility-of-another-ai-winter/

Aditya Grover, Research Scientist, Facebook AI Research

I am optimistic that we can steer clear of another AI winter by embracing the appropriate checks and balances at our disposal today. The previous winters were largely due to AI technologies that did not live up to their oversold promise. These risks exist today as well, especially with the hype around deep learning. However, the circumstances today are more robust to uncontrolled and unjustified hype from the winters of the 20th century in three major ways. First, the internet has laid the backbone for seamless access and exchange of information across a variety of disciplines. AI is no exception and in particular, sites such as arXiv and Github have helped spur a culture of openness in both research and development. Second, almost all major technology companies have made significant investments in fundamental and applied AI creating jobs for researchers and engineers and accelerating AI progress.

Notably, these companies run large AI labs that can effectively combine the research independence of academia with the engineering scale of industry; these labs publish papers in top-tier, peer-reviewed journals and conferences, release large-scale datasets and high-quality code, and help develop the software and hardware platforms critical for advancing AI. Third and last, the increasing diversity of individuals and organizations involved in developing, deploying, and auditing AI systems have helped highlight significant limitations of current AI technologies, such as the gender and racial biases in language models and facial recognition software. These efforts play a key role in mitigating the potential harm of AI systems and offering a more balanced perspective on their strengths and weaknesses.

The overall effect of such a 21st century ecosystem is that it incentivizes measurable, accountable, and holistic progress in AI, unlike the past winters."

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Water Jug Puzzle

What is the Water Jug puzzle? There are two Jugs. One jug volume is 4L and another one is 3L. Neither of the Jugs have not marked measurement on jugs. There is a tap, and you can pour jug at any time. Also, you can drop water at any time. if someone ask, they need 2L of water. How do you measure 2L . Also, there is not any additional jugs.